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Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Su-Su-SUSA, GoodBye!

Wow! What a nailbiter in Indiana last night, but a sweet ending nonetheless for Senator Clinton! And a big victory, although not as big as previously projected, for Senator Obama in NC.

I still maintain that demographics are destiny. But apparently SUSA, my former fave, underestimated the AA turnout in both states by about 15%. Also, I believe they parallelled Indiana's demographics to Pennsylvania, when in fact, they are closer to Missouri. Hence, the incredibly inaccurate predictions for both states.

What's amazing, despite the fact that the corporate media and Obama's supporters will certainly resume their cries for Hillary to drop out, is that nothing much has changed. Senator Clinton held her constituency, and Senator Obama held his - but not as strongly. In fact, Obama's showed signs of weakness. Demographically speaking, a 20-25 point Obama blowout was expected in North Carolina, and not so long ago, Senator Obama himself was referring to Indiana as a potential tiebreaker between Clinton's victory in PA and his in NC. Moreover, hundreds of thousands of early voters (40% African American) cast their ballots in North Carolina, many before Wright did his damage.

The results from last night, frankly, are not encouraging for either candidate. I believe that Hillary Clinton is by far the strongest in the General Election against McCain, but I do not trust the Democratic Party at this point to realize that Obama cannot get enough Clinton Dems, Independents and Republicans to win in November. (He only got 40% of the white vote in Indiana, for example.) I feel that they are doing everything in their power to hand the nomination to him on a silver platter, including pretending that Florida and Michigan do not exist in order to give Obama a larger lead.

In addition, I resent in the strongest manner the way Obama has gamed the system. His strategy of race-baiting was a two-fer: He smeared the Clintons as racists not only to weaken Hillary's reputation, but to take his AA support to impossible levels. He knew that the corporate media, always and forever suffering from Clinton Derangement Syndrome, would enable his efforts.

Obama used that firewall of 90% AA support to create those 11 victories in a row, and to make it seem like he is the inevitable winner. It was a disgusting tactic, and it worked in the primaries.

But it will not work in the General Election, because Obama's coalition will not hold against McCain. What will Obama do then, once he can no longer blame absolutely everything on Hillary Clinton (IACF)?

This fight should go to the convention, as so many close races have done before, and Hillary should be allowed to show her strength in must-win Democratic states. Then, the superdelegates will decide.

I hope they make the right choice, but I must say, I'm not optimistic. (Maybe it's the allergy medicine talking.)

Tune in May 20th (the Oregon and West Virgina primarie) for another episode of..."As the Democrats Turn!"

6 comments:

Timmy B said...

I respect your determination, but I think NC was the straw that did it. What we are probably going to see is the superdelegates are going to start flocking to Obama in an attempt to end it.

madamab said...

You could very well be right, Timmy B. I guess we will see what happens. :-)

Today so far, I believe Obama has gained 4 SD's and HRC 1.

jacilyn said...

I want to see everyone vote.

And I am not calling anything quits until Clinton does. If that happens this afternoon, well, so be it. But I take my cue from her, not from the media or the Obama campaign.

madamab said...

Good for you, jacilyn! That's how I feel.

And as of this afternoon, she's not quitting.

She's not giving up on us, so we're not giving up on her. :-)

sister of ye said...

It still blows my mind that the "progressive" bloggers support a guy who has a stable of libertarian economic advisors, sends out not-so-subtle sexist and homophobic dogwhistles, thinks Reagan and Bush I had good ideas on foreign policy and deregulation, thought Roberts would be a swell chief justice until he learned the vote might hurt his political career, and loves nuclear energy, "clean" coal and ethanol. And who, of course, deliberately fostered an ugly racial divide in the party.

Cognitive dissonance - guess it's not just for conservatives anymore.

madamab said...

Cognitive dissonance - guess it's not just for conservatives anymore.

Ah, but remember:

1) Obama is a "secret" progressive. He is just triangulating to get more votes. As soon as he gets into office, he will enact his true progressive agenda.

2) The Clintons must be stopped at all costs. They were the worst thing evah for the Democratic Party. Anything Obama does to HRC is richly deserved and necessary.

3) Obama is new and different. He "gets" the blogosphere. He will include the bloggers in his Administration in some meaningful way. HRC, on the other hand, will shut the New Media out, since she is old and part of the Washington Way.

4) Obama voted against the Iraq War. (Yes, many of them actually believe this is true.) Well, even if that's not the case, at least he didn't vote FOR it like HRC.

5) (A deeper analysis) The "progressive" blogosphere is made up of ex-Republicans. Arianna, Aravosis, Kos and JMM all fit this profile. Obama's less populist agenda truly appeals to them more than HRC's.

6) PONY!!!!

Seriously...this is what they're thinking. There is no dissonance for them because 1, 2, 3 and 4 are the only thoughts allowed in their brains.

It's amazing how differently we are all seeing what's happening, isn't it? And I thought we Democrats were the reality-based ones.

Guess not.