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Wednesday, June 4, 2008

By The Numbers: Montana and South Dakota

Well, folks, they're finally over! Hillary won South Dakota by 10%, and Obama won Montana by 16%.

Now what?

Because the main number from last night was:


Senator Barack Obama has finally reached, and passed, that "magic number" delegate threshhold, which under normal circumstances, would allow him to claim the presumptive nominee status.

So why did Hillary Clinton not concede last night, much to the consternation and amazement of the clueless pundits who had been loudly proclaiming she would do so all day - and much to the elation of her loyal supporters (like ME!!)? What does she know that the CNN/MSNObama bots don't [pretend not to] know? And why did Barack Obama say, "I will be the nominee," instead of "I am the nominee" in his speech last night?

Well, here's the thing: SuperDelegates can change their minds right up until the Convention. (For that matter, so can pledged delegates - but the SuperDelegates are the ones that we're looking at right now.)

If either candidate had enough pledged and elected delegates to get to that magic number, the nomination contest would be over. However, Obama's total, like Hillary's, is made up of both pledged AND SuperDelegates. If you count his pledged/elected delegate total (by CNN's count), he only has 1762; Hillary has 1637.

That's right - Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates by only 125.

What's even crazier is this: Remember the Texas pri-caucus? Hillary won the primary, but not the caucus, and Texas allots its delegates according to both the primary and caucus results? Well, the Texas delegate count is still not final. So, if you take into account the terrible decision from Saturday, which hobbled Clinton while giving Obama an extra push, Obama's lead is even more questionable.

The closeness of this election gives Hillary extra leverage. She could do many things at this point - she could concede at the end of the week, if it looks like the SuperDelegates are all abandoning ship; she could suspend her campaign, which allows her to take some time off and let Obama and McCain take the spotlight; or, she could check with supporters and SuperDelegates and see if her case is making any headway with them, and if it is, take it to the Convention.

I personally am hoping she does whatever feels best for her - but I tend to think she should suspend. Let McCain and Obama duke it out for a few months, and then we'll see if Obama has what it takes to beat McCaca. If not, a deal could be reached at the Convention and the SuperDelegates could nominate Hillary.

Of course, she could take it to the Convention just on MI and FL alone, and she has been hinting that she would do so since January. So who knows?

For those who think Obama will offer Hillary the VP slot, I think you should all put down the Kool-Aid. The entire point of the Obama "movement" is to throw the Clintons out of power. Why would he, and the Party Leaders who are backing him, agree to keep her and Bill in the spotlight?

Besides, the Obamas have made it quite clear they have no intentions of doing so. They simply hate Hillary and Bill - they're racist monsters, you know. Their laughable statement from yesterday:

CNN is reporting Hillary has told New York lawmakers that she is open to the VP slot.

Now here's the funny part: Suzanne Malveaux reports that the Obama campaign says she is on the "short list" but is concerned that the Clintons haven't been fully vetted.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Let me see, the guy with Wright, Ayers, Rezko, Meeks, Farrakhan and Pfleger (and who knows who and what else) hovering over him, the guy with just a year in the public spotlight, the guy who has been doing oppo research on the Clintons for that entire same year...THAT GUY is saying that the Clintons aren't vetted?

What a colossal, overweening, arrogant schmuck. Am I excited yet that the Democrats are pushing him down our throats?

No, I'm not.

I'm choking.

Bless you, Senator Clinton, and thank you for your historic efforts. Do as you like, but I'm not giving up until you do. You speak for me and everyone who believes in the FDR version of the Democratic Party.

Whatever happens now, I know that you will always be there, fighting for the working class. Sometimes we don't deserve you, but we've got you.


Timmy B said...

I'm beginning to wonder if she's not shooting for VP, but squeezing the Dem hochos for more power within the party. If so, the more power the better. Dem leaders havn't really impressed me, but someone as tough and smart as her would run rings around Repubs.

madamab said...

I've been thinking "Senate Majority Leader" myself, Timmy B!

Whatever she decides to do is okay with me. She's already accomplished so much just by hanging tough. A lesser person, male or female, would have caved a million times before now. :-)

anthonytampafl said...

Tickets Three Way Race
She starts with 40% of Americans that love Her Hell She could Wright Her own ticket.
Why in gods name do you think She would want to be on the Obama ticket after this screwed up primary.
Are You sure Friday is It, and the presidential race is no longer about voters are You 100% sure shes gone, did you check thy said that about McCain he was gone dead remember,
Barack Obama and Bill Ayers
This is not just guilt-by-association This man may be up to his old rong doing again and He will do just what He wants to see Obama in Office.
Did The Caucuses get over run and jacked up by new stundents voters and war protesters mobilized by the ’60s radical and University of Illinois professor Bill Ayers is He up to the same crossing all lines and even herting Americans to get his point across again?
Did He help galvinized the large student involment in Obamas team the ones jacked up the caucuses?.

madamab said...

Anthony - I'm not sure of anything at all! The only reason McCain isn't dead is because the Republicans are authoritarians, and they do what the Party leadership tells them. If the voters were in charge, I'm not sure if he would have made it - it would probably be Romney or Hackabee.

And no, I don't want her on his ticket. I've been off that bandwagon for a long time. Let him sink or swim on his own.

Anyway, I am posting a statement by Hillary shortly. She's the only one I believe about these things.

Barring a miracle, Obama will be the nominee on Saturday.